Trump says Iran war "close to over" amid hopes for more negotiations
Following the hotter-than-expected headline CPI report, the 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.02%. The yield appears to have decisively broken above key resistance at 4.97%, setting the stage for a potential retest of the mid-May highs around 5.15%. And frankly, given current momentum, there’s no obvious reason it couldn’t push even higher.
The 10-year rate is also now around 4.5%, and it is at a point where it could be much higher, with the potential to rise to around 4.8%.
Rates are going up because inflation expectations are rising, and the cause-and-effect relationship here is as straightforward as one can get.
Meanwhile, the 10/2 is so close to breaking out. The signs are right there.
The dollar made a notable move higher yesterday, and it appears to have broken out of its downtrend, potentially paving the way for further rise.
Meta (NASDAQ:META) still has 2b top in place, and yesterday it closed on support at $710. If that support breaks, the neck stop is $680, and then we can start thinking about something much bigger on the downside.
Stocks finished mostly lower yesterday, and it could have been far worse if not for Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). The S&P 500 declined by 40 bps, while the equal-weight RSP fell sharply by 1.4%.
The S&P 500 futures closed precisely at their 10-day exponential moving average. Notably, trading volume picked up slightly, reaching the 20-day moving average. The critical question now is whether sellers return today to drive prices lower, and given how thin volumes have been over the past month, it likely won’t take much to tip the scales.